US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on Air Power One earlier than taking off from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Feb. 19, 2026.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Pictures
Oil costs hovered close to six-month highs on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that “actually unhealthy issues” will occur if there was no deal over its nuclear program.
Worldwide benchmark Brent crude futures with April supply traded 0.2% decrease at $71.53 per barrel at round 9:24 a.m. London time (4:24 a.m. ET), erasing earlier positive aspects, whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March supply stood 0.2% decrease at $66.30.
Each contracts notched their highest settle in six months within the earlier session as vitality market contributors proceed to observe provide dangers within the oil-rich Center East.
The U.S. and Iran have held talks in Switzerland this week to attempt to resolve a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Preliminary stories of progress, nevertheless, gave technique to accusations from Washington that Iran had failed to deal with core U.S. calls for.
Talking on the first assembly of his Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. president mentioned “unhealthy issues will occur” if Tehran does not comply with a deal over its nuclear program.
Trump added that the world will doubtless discover out over the subsequent 10 days whether or not the U.S. will attain a take care of Iran or take navy motion. He later advised reporters aboard Air Power One which he needed an settlement inside “10 to fifteen days.”
Brent crude futures over the past six months.
His feedback come after a big buildup of U.S. navy forces within the Center East and amid stories the White Home is contemplating contemporary navy motion towards Tehran as quickly as this weekend.
Trump mentioned Iran’s nuclear potential had been “completely decimated” by U.S. strikes on its services in June final yr, earlier than including “we might need to take it a step additional or we might not,” with out offering additional particulars.
Iran reportedly mentioned in a letter to United Nations Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres on Thursday that Tehran will reply “decisively” if subjected to navy aggression.
The Islamic Republic has carried out navy drills within the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in current days, in addition to joint naval drills with Russia within the Gulf of Oman, also referred to as the Sea of Oman.
Naval items from Iran and Russia perform to simulation of rescue a hijacked vessel through the joint naval drills held on the Port of Bandar Abbas close to the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan, Iran on February 19, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Pictures
“Every little thing is in place, or might be by Saturday night time, for strikes to start and so the window opens then,” Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, advised CNBC’s “Entry Center East” on Friday.
“Does not imply that is going to occur instantly. The president did point out that he’s ready to listen to from Iran whether or not they’re ready to make concessions on their nuclear program that he is insisting on,” Shapiro mentioned.
“I believe it is unlikely. We’ve by no means seen Iran open to these varieties of concessions, so I believe it’s unlikely they are going to comply with these, which implies that within the days coming, the president should make that call on navy strikes,” he added.
A ‘very nicely equipped’ market
The Trump administration has mentioned it nonetheless hopes to achieve a diplomatic decision over Tehran’s nuclear program, with White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that it might be “very sensible” for Iran to make a deal.
Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, mentioned that, whereas the oil market is “very nicely equipped” on a world foundation, there are three components propping up costs.
“Worries about Iran, clearly. Additionally, an unusually great amount of shopping for by China, merely for stockpiling functions. It makes you surprise what they’ll do with all these inventories after which additionally we have now very excessive freight charges,” Rats advised CNBC’s “Europe Early Version” on Friday.
“The issue of these three that’s most outstanding, after all, is the difficulty in Iran,” Rats mentioned.
Strategists at Barclays mentioned Friday that whereas fairness markets have largely shrugged off the geopolitical noise to date, tensions have been rising since Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to debate so-called “pink strains,” alongside stories of elevated U.S. navy functionality within the area.
“We imagine that any strike would doubtless need to be time restricted and with outlined targets (nuclear, ballistic missiles), as they had been final summer season,” the strategists mentioned in a analysis word.
“With midterm elections later this yr and the administration prioritizing affordability for US shoppers, we suspect their willingness to tolerate a protracted interval of considerably increased oil costs, and doubtlessly casualties too, might be restricted,” they continued. “So if battle is imminent it’s prone to be quick lived, in our view.”
