Novo Nordisk was the primary firm to make a GLP-1 drug for weight reduction and have become Europe’s most precious firm.
However its troubles are stacking up and at the moment the inventory trades at only a quarter of what it did at its peak lower than two years in the past.
Pricing stress, fierce competitors, and pipeline setbacks have all hit the Danish drugmaker in current months.
Regardless of being first to launch a GLP-1 drug for weight reduction, Novo’s market share has eroded, and the corporate now solely captures about 40% of the market, whereas rival Eli Lilly holds 60%, in response to most estimates.
Novo is clear-eyed in regards to the challenges it faces, particularly round pricing. After the corporate pre-released its 2026 forecast earlier this month and predicted declining gross sales, CEO Mike Doustdar advised CNBC: “Folks ought to anticipate that it goes down earlier than it comes again up.”
He is repeatedly stated that new medicines, the Wegovy capsule, and elevated volumes will drive long-term progress.
These charts present the dimensions of the challenges Novo is dealing with.
Novo Nordisk is sometimes called a diabetes and weight problems pure play. Its portfolio included six branded medicine with annual gross sales of not less than $1 billion in 2025, fewer than comparable present and future rivals.
Eli Lilly boasts eight so-called blockbuster medicine, and its portfolio additionally consists of oncology and gene therapies.
The mixed gross sales of Ozempic and Wegovy, Novo’s two greatest medicine, amounted to about $32 billion, or about 67% of whole gross sales, final yr. Mixed gross sales of Lilly’s two greatest medicine, Mounjaro and Zepbound, had been about $37 billion, or about 56% of the corporate’s whole gross sales over the identical interval.
Novo additionally sells insulin, together with blockbusters Tresiba and NovoRapid, in addition to some medicine for uncommon ailments like hemophilia, however none come near bringing in what its GLP-1 medicine do.
Amongst large-cap pharma corporations hoping to enter the marketplace for weight reduction medicine within the coming years, resembling AstraZeneca, Roche, Amgen, and Pfizer, by way of its acquisition of Metsera, the variety of blockbuster medicine was considerably larger.
Novo Nordisk has additionally come underneath stress as costs for GLP-1 medicine are coming down in its most necessary market, the U.S.
The U.S. has accounted for greater than half of Novo’s whole gross sales since 2023, and falling costs there are weighing on each the corporate’s topline and profitability. Final yr, Novo and Lilly reached a cope with the Trump administration to decrease costs on their GLP-1 medicine on Medicare and Medicaid and supply the therapies on to shoppers at a reduction.
“In 2026, Novo Nordisk will face pricing headwinds in an more and more aggressive market,” stated CEO Mike Doustdar, as the corporate’s full-year earnings report was printed earlier this month.
Novo inventory is down 75% since peaking at simply over 1,000 Danish kroner a share in mid-2024.
The inventory is up a bit over 10% during the last 5 years. That compares to Eli Lilly’s 400% rise and the European blue-chip index Stoxx 600‘s 55% achieve over the identical interval.
Traders had been final rattled on Monday when Novo reported disappointing outcomes of a trial pitting its next-generation weight reduction drug, CagriSema, towards Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, also called Zepbound, sending the inventory down over 16% on the day.
“Confidence within the share is at all-time low,” stated Jyske Financial institution analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen on Tuesday.
Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk stated it anticipated gross sales and earnings to drop by between 5% and 13% in 2026. If that involves be true, it might be the primary time annual gross sales have declined since 2017, in native currencies.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipate gross sales to come back in about 8% decrease in 2026 in comparison with 2025. A lot of that is because of growing competitors from each Eli Lilly and compounding pharmacies which might be promoting copycat variations of Novo’s branded medicine for a lower cost.
Long run, different large-cap pharma corporations are planning to enter the market, and are pitching traders extra differentiated weight reduction medicine to have the ability to safe a slice of the market share for themselves.
Novo is hoping CagriSema can beef up future gross sales, however after the most recent trial outcomes, analysts are more and more doubting its business potential.
Novo stated it’s optimistic in regards to the drug, and that additional trials would assess its full weight-loss potential.
The Wegovy capsule is one other potential progress driver for Novo and had a robust launch. Nonetheless, it stays to be seen the way it will fare if Lilly launches its rival capsule, anticipated to hit the market within the second quarter, and what results decrease costs may need on volumes.
