A girl and a child look out of a window of a practice in Kyiv, Ukraine.
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4 years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine are starting to take their toll on the international locations’ demographics because the battle places girls off — or prevents them — from beginning or increasing their households.
Whereas the consequences of that broad-based hesitancy to have kids won’t be instantly obvious, a decline within the delivery fee can have far-reaching penalties for economies and societies additional down the observe.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine’s fertility fee — the common variety of births per girl — has plummeted, exacerbated by the conflict, the lack of companions and spouses within the combating, and household separation and mass emigration.
In 2021, Ukraine’s complete fertility fee stood at 1.22 however this has since dropped to 1.00 in 2025, based on United Nations inhabitants information. Some have cited a extra dire metric, with the First Woman of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, warning in December that the fertility fee within the nation had plunged to 0.8–0.9 kids per girl, with the conflict and insecurity throughout Ukraine inflicting this “vital decline.”
For a society to switch itself from one era to the subsequent, with out counting on migration, a complete fertility fee of two.1 kids per girl is critical.
Russia, too, has additionally seen a longer-term development downwards in its fertility fee exacerbated by the conflict. In 2021, Russia’s fertility fee was 1.51 however by 2025, it had dropped to 1.37 kids per girl, down from 1.4 recorded the yr earlier than.
Ongoing development
Ukraine and Russia aren’t alone in experiencing declining fertility and delivery charges — the development could be seen in a wide range of European and Asia international locations — and the decreases could be all the way down to a number of components, from profession and way of life decisions to financial constraints.
A girl carries a child as she reacts after evacuating from Russian troop-occupied Kupiansk city in a bus convoy, amid Russia’s assault on Ukraine, on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine Might 30, 2022. Image taken Might 30, 2022.
Ivan Alvarado | Reuters
However 4 years of conflict seem to have performed an enormous half in deterring or stopping girls in Ukraine from having kids, whereas in Russia, girls appear immune to repeated calls from the Kremlin, and President Vladimir Putin, to have bigger households.
Declining delivery charges pose huge issues for international locations as they’ve knock-on results on the financial system and society, with few births which means fewer staff within the labor power in future, in addition to decrease productiveness and financial development.
Which means decrease tax receipts for governments and additional pressure on pension and healthcare programs as an ageing inhabitants grows and turns into depending on a shrinking working inhabitants.
The fertility and delivery fee — referring to the variety of reside births per 1,000 individuals every year — had been declining earlier than the conflict, with Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and help for pro-Russian separatists in japanese Ukraine affecting sentiment towards having kids in these areas, Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher on the Kyiv-based Centre for Financial Technique, informed CNBC.
The state of affairs was then made even worse after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
“After all, in 2022 it bought it even worse due to this huge migration and since the vast majority of those that left Ukraine have been individuals of working age, economically energetic individuals,” she famous, including:
“A whole lot of girls who theoretically might have kids left, and for many who stayed, the conflict and uncertainty meant they have been unprepared to provide delivery in Ukraine, and the variety of births remains to be declining.”
Even when peace talks come to fruition and the conflict ends, Ippolitova mentioned migration out of Ukraine might proceed, whereas these staying within the nation might be delay having households in the event that they concern a repeat invasion by Russia. This, she mentioned, was one more reason why Ukraine wanted safety ensures as a part of any peace deal.
Maternity models and hospitals have been broken in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This picture reveals particles inside a broken maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine after Russian shelling on February 1, 2026. Russia denies intentionally concentrating on civilian infrastructure.
World Photos Ukraine | World Photos Ukraine | Getty Photos
Though fertility traits are notoriously arduous to foretell, and child booms are sometimes seen after wars finish, Ippolitova mentioned the nation’s low fertility fee might nonetheless bother the Ukrainian financial system sooner or later.
Faculties and universities have been already beginning to expertise falling numbers of pupils, she mentioned, signaling a smaller working-age inhabitants down the road.
“I believe that it’s a big drawback. Now we have labor shortages proper now, already, and after the conflict, it would solely worsen … In 10 or 15 years when individuals my age retire, there might be no one to switch them on the labor market,” Ippolitova mentioned.
Russia seems for a child growth
Regardless of being the injured, invaded social gathering within the conflict, Ukraine isn’t alone in experiencing declining numbers of births. Russia has seen the identical development over a number of a long time regardless of Putin selling bigger households as a “conventional Russian worth” and patriotic obligation.
The Russian state has launched incentives for ladies who’ve three or extra kids, together with lump-sum funds, tax breaks and state advantages. The Kremlin has even revived the Soviet-era “Mom Heroine” award, giving girls a money reward of 1 million rubles (round $13,000) for having 10 or extra kids.
Resistance to such incentives stays, nonetheless, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024, the bottom annual complete since 1999.
In December, Putin mentioned throughout his year-end press convention that the fertility fee stood at 1.4 in 2025, and instructed Russia wanted a child growth.
“We even have a slight decline [in the fertility rate] — roughly 1.4. We have to obtain at the least 2.0,” Putin mentioned throughout his annual “Direct Line”, telling the general public that “we should make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood trendy.”
Journalists watch Russian President Vladimir Putin answering questions in the course of the annual “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin broadcast reside” by Russian TV channels and radio stations on the Gostiny Dvor studio, in Moscow on June 15, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV (Photograph credit score ought to learn KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP through Getty Photos)
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Photos
Critics say Putin’s place on the nation’s low fertility fee boils down to regulate somewhat than demographic considerations.
“I strongly consider that Putin’s regime’s efforts to double down on encouraging births isn’t associated to any type of demographic traits. That is all about societal management,” Konstantin Sonin, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor on the College of Chicago Harris Faculty of Public Coverage, informed CNBC.
“[Russia’s authorities] need girls to be at house, they need girls to be with children. They need males to care in regards to the girls, not about politics,” Sonin, a distinguished Putin critic, mentioned.
CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the feedback and is awaiting a reply.
Sonin argued that Putin had already proven he didn’t care about demographics by beginning the conflict towards Ukraine, with the battle inflicting financial instability, labor market shortages and inflation.
Efforts by the Kremlin to encourage extra births had fallen flat, Sonin mentioned, as a result of girls in Russia didn’t really feel protected and safe, with the low delivery fee direct proof of that and successfully dispelling constructive photographs of the nation and conflict promoted by Russia and state-run media.
“There are extra vital issues for any girl, for any younger household, than simply how a lot cash in a direct money switch they are going to obtain from the state. What issues for them is the overall feeling of security. And this isn’t there in Russia,” Sonin mentioned.
“The standard of life has fallen for the reason that starting of the conflict. Tons of of 1000’s of younger persons are useless due to the conflict, so individuals immediately really feel a lot much less protected than they felt in different circumstances.”
