Analysts added to the bitter temper round Novo Nordisk , racing to chop worth targets on the inventory, after the Danish drugmaker revealed disappointing trial outcomes on what it hoped to be its subsequent massive weight reduction drug. The drug, CagriSema did not meet the important thing objective of matching rival medication Zepbound, developed by Eli Lilly , and the inventory fell over 16% on Monday to a four-year low. Confidence within the inventory is at all-time low, and coming into a interval with none apparent worth triggers, stated Jyske Financial institution analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen after the most recent CagriSema trial outcomes, which he known as a “gigantic personal objective by Novo.” It signifies that CagriSema is not on par with Zepbound, and with a extra difficult product design, it weakens the case for CagriSema as a successor to Wegovy, Laustsen added because the financial institution downgraded shares to Maintain from Purchase. “CagriSema shouldn’t be lifeless, however the product doesn’t reside as much as the potential that neither we nor the market had hoped for.” Novo’s Copenhagen-listed inventory was down one other 3% in buying and selling on Tuesday, bringing losses over the previous 12 months to 60%. Worth targets come down Not less than seven analysts lowered their worth goal on Novo Nordisk following Monday’s information. Deutsche Financial institution’s Emmanuel Papadakis minimize his suggestion on Novo to Maintain, alongside slashing his worth goal to 275 Danish kroner from 400 kroner. The most recent blow to Novo comes lower than a month after the corporate predicted gross sales and earnings would decline between 5% and 13% in 2026 , an outlook far worse than the market had anticipated, resulting in shares taking one other dive. Sitting by a 12 months of double-digit gross sales declines is perhaps tolerable if there have been some supportive near-term dynamics, together with continued momentum for the Wegovy tablet, in addition to higher medium-term prospects, reminiscent of a aggressive CagriSema launch addressing market share stress, stated Papadakis. “Sadly a miss [Monday] for REDEFINE4 disproves our optimism CagriSema might do a lot better and blows a sizeable gap in that thesis,” he stated, referring to the examine. Learn extra Novo Nordisk faces a defining 12 months within the weight problems drug market. It’s off to a dramatic begin Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 progress is simply getting began as Novo Nordisk braces for a decline in 2026 Novo Nordisk says it would take authorized motion after Hims & Hers reveals $49 copy of Wegovy tablet Novo Nordisk shares tumble after firm warns of gross sales hit this 12 months A lot of the worth goal cuts stems from decrease estimates of future CagriSema gross sales, and the doubt in its business potential and positioning versus rival remedies. Barclays analyst James Gordon minimize his peak gross sales estimate for the drug to $2 billion from $12 billion, or by greater than 80%, saying Monday’s information was a “worst-case situation.” Novo’s optimism Whereas the market has misplaced confidence in CagriSema, Novo says it nonetheless sees the drug’s potential. “On this house of an open-label trial, we’re actually, actually glad with the 23% weight reduction, and possibly a bit bit shocked by the 25% weight reduction that we noticed inside market drug,” Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange informed CNBC’s Charlotte Reed. The most recent trial outcomes for CagriSema have been from a so-called open-label trial, that means contributors knew what therapy they have been receiving. Such a design comes with a danger of bias in favor of a well known product. Within the examine, contributors taking CagriSema achieved a weight lack of 23% after 84 weeks in comparison with 25.5% with of tirzepatide, also called Zepbound. “When the examine was initiated three, 4 years in the past, it was not potential, for technical causes, to blind the examine. We subsequently determined to do the open-label model,” stated Lange, including that “that is not optimum.” Monday’s outcomes confirmed the same efficacy of CagriSema as in earlier research. In December 2024, shares additionally tanked after the outcomes of the primary CagriSema outcomes have been revealed. On the time, efficacy was reported of twenty-two.7%, under the 25% Novo had focused. The information additionally comes as Novo is already beneath stress from decrease U.S. costs and continued market share loss to Eli Lilly and its rival medicines. NVO 5Y line Novo Nordisk ADR’s are at a four-year low “The agency wants its pipeline to supply differentiated therapies that may assist prolong its place available in the market,” famous Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen. Andersen, who had anticipated CagriSema to realize non-inferiority to tirzepatide, nonetheless assumes CagriSema will attain the market, however the failure of this newest examine “is more likely to have an effect on doctor and affected person notion of the drug, including to launch headwinds.” She lowered her worth goal on the inventory to 343 kroner from 372 kroner, in addition to her CagriSema gross sales forecast to $8 billion from $13 billion. Even so, Andersen says the market is undervaluing Novo’s long-term competitiveness within the GLP-1 market. “Close to-term catalysts look restricted, however embrace oral semaglutide’s US launch trajectory and potential midstage pipeline progress or acquisitions,” she stated. Early Tuesday, Novo stated one other of its experimental drug candidates, UBT251, delivered as much as 19.7% weight reduction over 24 weeks , in a mid-stage trial carried out in China. The drugs, which targets three completely different hormones affecting urge for food, is being collectively developed by Novo and Chinese language agency United Laboratories . Novo will conduct a worldwide trial with UBT251 with outcomes out subsequent 12 months, it stated. The information did little to assist the struggling Novo inventory.
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