Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath-laying ceremony marking the eighty fifth anniversary of the Nazi Germany invasion into the Soviet Union in World Warfare II on the Remembrance and Sorrow Day on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow on June 22, 2026.
Pavel Bednyakov | Afp | Getty Photos
A string of political victories and deep-strike successes by Ukraine has revived hopes that the battle could possibly be shifting in Kyiv’s favor, although analysts warn that efforts to lift the battle’s value for Russia threat triggering additional escalation.
After greater than 4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine launched an unprecedented drone strike on Gazprom’s Moscow Refinery, triggering an enormous explosion and sending black plumes of smoke billowing into the sky over the Russian capital.
The assault, which blew the lid off a storage tank, showcased Kyiv’s enhanced mid- to long-range drone capabilities and prolonged a collection of strikes on Russia’s vitality infrastructure.
Ukraine has additionally stepped up its strikes on Crimea, which Russia seized by pressure in 2014, as a part of a technique to isolate the peninsula, and has benefitted from political tailwinds in current weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled the potential for renewed American assist of Kyiv, the election of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar eliminated a significant impediment to Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acquired reward for turning the diplomatic tables on Russian President Vladimir Putin with an open letter that proposed face-to-face talks.
An interim U.S.-Iran peace deal additionally seems to have pushed the Russia-Ukraine battle again up the geopolitical agenda, whereas tumbling oil costs are seen as prone to minimize into Moscow’s current windfall.
Analysts, nevertheless, advised CNBC that Ukraine’s depleted air protection constitutes a significant impediment to its battlefield success and the potential for Russia to escalate the state of affairs even additional stays a hazard.
Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia packages at Chatham Home, described the Ukrainian drone assault on the Moscow oil refinery as “probably the most fascinating growth over the previous 12 months.”
The incident underscored Ukraine’s rising army confidence, Roos mentioned, in addition to highlighting Kyiv’s understanding that it should proceed to hit Russia “the place it hurts probably the most,” by reducing Russia’s vitality revenues.
Black smoke rises from the world of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft’s Moscow oil refinery on the south-eastern outskirts of Moscow on June 18, 2026.
– | Afp | Getty Photos
“It is a unhealthy time for Russia. The variety of bankruptcies of [small and medium-sized enterprises] has been on the rise,” Roos advised CNBC in a telephone interview.
Formally, Russia’s inflation price got here in at 5.6% year-over-year as of mid-June, decrease than a month earlier, in accordance with the Financial institution of Russia. However Swedish intelligence just lately alleged the nation was manipulating financial knowledge and that the true inflation price could possibly be a lot greater, maybe as excessive as 15%. Roos mentioned such a determine was “fairly one thing.”
“Even when oil costs skyrocketed and went to the roof on the peak of the battle within the Center East, Russia had not elevated its manufacturing. So, sure, it benefitted from a windfall, however manufacturing was not elevated — so the results had been relatively restricted,” Roos mentioned.
The tip recreation is at hand and, due to this fact, we now have the chance of escalation.
Christopher Granville
Managing director at TS Lombard
Roos mentioned it is troublesome to see how Putin can again out of the battle with out dropping face and, due to this fact, probably dropping energy. “It is like mountain climbing at excessive altitude. If you’ve taken the trail, there is no such thing as a means again. And that’s what makes it harmful for Europe as a result of the dangers of escalation are at all times there,” he added.
Russian Deputy Overseas Minister Sergei Ryabkov mentioned Tuesday that Moscow has noticed “indicators of a shift” within the Trump administration’s place on understandings reached at a summit in Alaska final August, in accordance with Russian state information company Tass.
The feedback appeared to replicate rising frustration in Moscow, though Ryabkov mentioned talks with the U.S. would proceed.
Why Crimea is underneath strain
Natia Seskuria, senior fellow in Russian and Eurasian safety at RUSI, a London-based protection suppose tank, mentioned Ukraine’s mid- to longer-range drone marketing campaign towards Russia was “actually vital.”
“Ukraine is mainly demonstrating to the Russians that the price of this battle is barely growing. Not only for Putin’s regime however for odd Russians,” Seskuria advised CNBC by video name.
“For a really very long time, Putin has been signaling to his inhabitants that Crimea is secure, and the battle wouldn’t come nearer to their houses and now we see that they’re going through the worst gas disaster in a protracted, very long time.”
A line of autos wait to refuel at fuel station in Moscow, Russia on June 21, 2026. Whereas strict gas and diesel gross sales limitations starting from 20 to 100 liters per automobile are being applied at quite a few fuel stations in St. Petersburg, a routine move of visitors and regular exercise proceed to be noticed at stations throughout the capital metropolis of Moscow.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Photos
Seskuria mentioned it’s too early to make conclusions on the extent to which Ukraine can minimize Crimea off fully, however continued assaults on the peninsula had been prone to make Russia’s summer time offensive “rather more sophisticated.”
Russian authorities, which had already imposed gas restrictions in Crimea, just lately suspended gas provides to the general public within the occupied area as Ukrainian assaults persist.
Analysts warn of escalation
“The tip recreation is at hand and, due to this fact, we now have the chance of escalation,” Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, advised CNBC by phone.
“Russia’s territorial agenda is now restricted to the remaining northwestern nook of the Donetsk oblast, which is the final a part of the Donbas,” Granville mentioned.
He added it may take Russia “six months to seize one or at most two such locations” and that two locations within the Donbas, the cities of Kostyantynivka and Lyman, had been “about to fall.”
Two main cities within the area, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, are nonetheless to fall to Russian forces, Granville mentioned.
Firefighters attempt to put out a hearth in a residential constructing following an airstrike in Zaporizhzhia on June 16, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Darya Nazarova | Afp | Getty Photos
“So, you are taking a look at 12 months probably to get to that time, and so in different phrases, you possibly can see the top level.”
Granville made clear, nevertheless, that the identical 12-month timeline could possibly be utilized to the choice prospect of continued Ukrainian strain on Russian logistics and society, “leading to Russia settling for an armistice on entrance traces that fall wanting its current territorial aim.”
